How odds work
Odds are a price. They tell you how much the bookmaker pays out per krona staked if a particular outcome happens. Indirectly, they also tell you how likely the bookmaker thinks that outcome is. This guide covers both sides.
What odds are
Decimal odds of 2.50 mean that SEK 100 returns SEK 250 if the outcome happens. Those SEK 250 include your SEK 100 stake. If the outcome does not happen, the stake is gone. There is no third option.
Three ways of writing the same thing
Swedish bookmakers almost always show decimal odds. British sites use fractions and American sites use plus and minus figures. All three describe exactly the same price.
| Decimal | Fractional | American | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 1/2 | −200 | 66.7% |
| 2.00 | 1/1 | +100 | 50.0% |
| 2.50 | 3/2 | +150 | 40.0% |
| 4.00 | 3/1 | +300 | 25.0% |
Want to convert odds of your own? Open the odds converter.
Implied probability
Divide 1 by the decimal odds and you get the probability the odds correspond to. Odds of 2.50 correspond to 40 percent. That does not mean the outcome happens 40 percent of the time. It means the bookmaker prices it that way, with its own margin built in.
The bookmaker's margin
Add up the implied probabilities for every outcome in a match and the total comes to more than 100 percent. The excess is the bookmaker's margin. In the example below it is 5.3 percent, which is typical for a 1X2 market in Allsvenskan.
Why odds move
Odds are set before the match and adjusted as new information arrives, such as team line-ups, and as money flows onto an outcome. The bookmaker wants to spread its risk, not predict the result. Odds that shorten say something about the flow of stakes, and not necessarily anything about the match.